Fall of Bashar al Assad Regime in Syria & its Implications
by Asif Haroon Raja
Turmoil in the Middle East has thickened after the sudden fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria. The situation in Syria is in a flux and no one knows what will happen in this war torn country which has gone through a bloody civil strife since 2011. It is now an established fact that in accordance with its objectives of Arab Spring, the US had planned to change the regime in Syria and had stoked protests. It had used ISIS as it’s major weapon for the purpose. Other than dozens of rebel groups, Turkey, KSA and UAE also wanted to topple the Alawite regime.
Syria under Bashar survived by the skin of teeth in Sept 2015 because of the ground support of Iranian militias, Hezbollah fighters and the Russian air intervention. With their continued support, the Syrian Army saved Damascus and recovered most of the lost regions except for the pockets in the NE, NW and the South. The major threat posed by ISIS under Baghdadi was eliminated.
By 2017/18, it looked as if Bashar regime had survived, and it didn’t suffer the fate of Libya. But the survival was at a very heavy cost. About 500,000 lost their lives and double the number were internally and externally displaced from their homes and the country suffered from a humanitarian crisis.
Continuity of Bashar’s regime and establishment of a Russian air base at Latakia and a naval base at Tartus further strengthened Iran’s perimeter of security resting upon Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hezbollah and IRGC elements in Syria, Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen and a strong presence of IRGC in southern Iraq.
It made southern and northern parts of Israel vulnerable since the two proxies on its two flanks had been equipped with rockets, missiles and drones. Houthis threatened shipping passage in the Red Sea and through Bab al Mandab strait.
The situation in the ME took a new turn after the war in Gaza which started on Oct 7, 2023. It gave an opportunity to Israel to deal with its immediate enemies one by one and in the process weaken Syria and Iran.
For more than one year, the IDF has been ferociously pounding Gaza, West Bank in Jordan, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria persistently. It has also struck targets in Iran three times thereby giving a message that Iran’s nuclear and missile sites are vulnerable to joint Israel-US air strikes.
Israel has succeeded in decimating Gaza and pulverising the militant forces in the three combat zones sufficiently. It was made possible because of the all-out support of the US and NATO. The GCC States have been neutralised and they have abandoned the Palestinians cause.
Due to continued fight by 25 rebel groups including the Kurds in Syria as well as direct involvement of the Turkish troops and presence of the US airbase in northeast Syria, the Syrian armed forces had got exhausted and demoralised.
Russia, the major protector of Syria has got deeply engaged in the Ukraine war since Feb 2022 and the situation is getting grave due to the possibility of NATO jumping into the fray.
Finding the overall situation conducive for a military adventure in Syria, the Hayat Tahrur al-Shams (HTS) under Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, which was being trained and equipped for the last few years, was given the go-ahead signal to gather support of all the opposition groups and to launch the decisive offensive in the northwest, starting from seizing control of the three strategic coastal cities of Aleppo, Homs and Hama, and then overpowering Damascus in conjunction with the pressure mounted by the southern groups towards the capital city.
The two-pronged offensive rendered the weary Alawite heavy Syrian Army helpless and it bolted without putting up resistance, and the ruling family fled to Moscow where they have been given political asylum. No effort was made by Iran or Russia to come to their rescue since the situation had become untenable. Within a week’s time, the socialist Assad regime collapsed, which had ruled Syria with an iron hand from 1970 onwards.
Although the thousands of prisoners locked up in dungeons for decades have been released and there are celebrations in the country and victory signs are being flashed, in my humble view, the trials and tribulations of the people of Syria are not yet over.
It is to be seen how the over two dozen rebel groups would behave and whether they would reconcile with the HTS ruling the roost and give up militancy, or otherwise. It is to be seen whether the HTS that had been declared as a banned terrorist group, has the capabilities to restore law and order, tackle multiple socio economic challenges, and bring back stability through better governance and financial management.
The game is on as has been demonstrated by the offensive actions of Israel from the day the regime fell. Almost all the sensitive military installations including the airport, airbases, arms depots etc have been destroyed and a sizable chunk of land, 25 km ahead of Golan heights seized. The size of the captured area is bigger than the Gaza Enclave. Netanyahu is ecstatic and he has given friendly overtures to the new interim regime in Damascus.
Israel’s future targets could be Latakia and Tartus from where Russia would soon be withdrawing its air and naval bases. After the neutralisation of economically and militarily stronger Arab States, it has become easier for Israel to accomplish its dream of establishing Greater Israel which extends from River Nile in Egypt to Euphrates in Iraq.
Iran is the biggest loser since the fall of its strongest ally has badly ruptured its nexus. Military support to the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Hamas in Gaza was routed through Syria.
After Israel, Turkey would be the biggest beneficiary since it is in a good position to increase its political and economic influence in Syria. The ISIS, Jabhat Al Nusra, Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes Kurds, and Free Syrian Army that had been fighting the Govt forces could create problems. Each player would like to extract its pound of flesh.
The outside powers vying to fill the power vacuum would be busy hatching conspiracies and plans to fill the vacuum. Syria getting divided into three parts has become a possibility and a reality.
The most affected people will be the Palestinians and the most affected countries are Egypt, KSA, UAE, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran. For Russia, it is a big setback, since Syria was the only reliable outpost and economic partner in the ME.
The US must be wanting to get the best deal out of the changing landscape. It has an airbase in NE Syria where 900 troops are stationed. Trump, who will be taking over the reins of power on 20 Jan 2025, has pledged to terminate the wars in Ukraine and in Gaza, and he might withdraw troops from Syria and Iraq, but neither Biden administration is in agreement, nor is Israel. The latter is looking forward for the US support to strike its next target country Iran.
The Biden administration’s anxiety and that of the regional countries can be judged from the sudden air dash of the US CENTCOM Commander. He visited Syria, then headed to Baghdad to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani.
Following his meeting with Al-Sudani, he quickly departed to Jordan without prior notice to hold talks with King Abdullah II, before returning to Baghdad.
After bidding farewell to Al-Sudani, King Abdullah urgently travelled to the United Arab Emirates to meet with Mohammed bin Zayed.
As soon as Al-Sudani returned to Baghdad, a delegation from the U.S. State Department arrived in the Iraqi capital for a new meeting with him.
•Al-Sudani then received a phone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Finally, Al-Sudani hosted the German Minister of Defense and his accompanying delegation.
Additionally, the UN envoy met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
What is happening behind the scenes and what is cooking is anyone guess? It must not be forgotten that Jolani was in Bucca prison camp manned by CIA in Baghdad in 2006. He along with Zarqawi and Baghdadi were trained to undertake terrorism in Iraq and then in Syria in 2011. He has been changing his groups and finally formed his own HTS group. How come he succeeded while all others including the most powerful ISIS couldn’t and that too within one week, is a big question ⁉️.
2025 could be horrendous when seen in the backdrop of so many sizzling flashpoints.
The writer is retd Brig Gen, defence, security, political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, patron-in-chief CDS, takes part in TV talk shows.
