India Wants Face Saving
By Asif Haroon Raja
After the humiliation suffered by IAF at the hands of PAF in the air duels on 27 Feb 2019, Modi lamented that if India had Rafael stealth fighter jets, which cannot be detected by radars, the outcome would have been different. He overlooked the age-old dictum that it is the man behind the gun who matters and not the gun itself.
The receipt of a batch of 36 Rafael from France bolstered the spirits of India, and it felt confident that in the next encounter, it will have a definite edge.
With this mindset, and assured of the backup support from the US and Israel, RSS, RAW, BJP orchestrated a false flag operation in Pahalgam on 22 Apr 2025 with multiple objectives. India’s military intelligence and Northern Command were not taken into confidence.
The major reason which impelled Modi to take extremely risky initiatives like suspension of Indus Water Treaty was its assumption that Pakistan had become soft and weak because of a host of internal issues; it was facing major threats from terrorism, as well as from India and Afghanistan, and was friendless.
India assumed that about three Corps of Pak Army were pinned down in KP and Baluchistan by TTP and BLA and it wouldn’t be possible for them to pull out all the troops.
India was also hopeful that its proxies would keep the rear areas of the Corps threatened, and would be able to further intensify terrorism in the two combat zones.
India thought that the iron was hot and the situation was ripe to strike Pakistan as well as complete the process of demographic change in IOK and to win elections in Bihar.
However, much to India’s chagrin, due to extraordinary alertness and pro-activeness of Pakistan’s military, media and diplomatic channels, India suffered setbacks on all the fronts one after the other. Within the first few days, the pendulum tilted in favour of Pakistan.
In response to Modi’s threat to close the water flow in the three Pakistan specific western rivers, Pakistan made it clear that it will be an act of war, and it will go to any extent to safeguard its vital interests.
When Indian forces were moved to the borders and the LoC in Kashmir was heated up in six sectors, Pakistani forces also took up battle positions and gave a tit-for-tat response along the LoC.
The two strike formations were readied to be launched at short notice. The PAF and Pak Navy were also ready for the war, and the air defence was fully activated. The Strategic Force Command readied its strategic responses. The warrior spirit was at its best.
IN Vikrant aircraft carrier deployed in North Arabian Sea to blockade Karachi had to beat a hasty retreat when it learnt that PN warships were equipped with Chinese precision guided anti-ship missiles. Indian P-81 surveillance aircraft was detected by PN on the night of 4/5 May and it was pulled back.
It surprised India that Pakistan was not isolated but had reliable friends. All-out support from China, Turkiye and Bangladesh, and even from Azerbaijan was highly upsetting for India.
Conversely, none of its allies in the region – Afghanistan and Iran, have announced their support for India. Pro India political parties of Pakistan have stood up in support of Pakistan armed forces, and the divided nation has gelled and is united to face Indian aggression.
India is highly concerned about its soft belly in the northeast where the landlocked seven sister states are up in arms, and are secretly supported by China and Bangladesh.
Pakistan, China and Bangladesh are threatening India from three directions and might have planned trilateral offensives.
The Indian military has been divided to meet six directional external and internal threats. External threats are from Pakistan, China in Galwan Valley & Ladakh, Bangladesh. The internal threats are posed by insurgencies and separatist movements in India, freedom movement in IOK, and possible mutiny in the Indian Army.
Modi and his hawkish core team were flabbergasted to find that none of the three Indian military services had any heart to go to war and were reluctant.
The reason for the reluctance was their unpreparedness for war. In frustration Modi sacked Northern Commander Lt Gen Kumar and air vice chief.
As if these troubles were not enough, leakage of secret documents exposed the plot made by RAW. Another Lt Gen heading military intelligence was sacked.
Removal of three senior officers has caused rumbling in the Indian Army and IAF and a revolt-like situation has emerged in the army.
The Sikhs in the Indian Army are looked at with suspicion, and are being removed from sensitive posts.
The Indian Sikhs have vowed not to allow Indian forces to cross East Punjab to attack Pakistan and Khalistan movement has intensified.
The minorities in India including the Hindu Dalits ruthlessly persecuted by the BJP/ RSS goons and Indian security forces are seething with rage.
The outraged people of India including the civil society are questioning the veracity of the govt’s claims that Pakistan was involved in Pahalgam. They are expressing their anger as to how the four unknown terrorists could come inside the heavily militarized Red Zone unchecked, kill tourists and manage to flee.
All these setbacks made Modi’s position weak and he desperately wanted to take a punitive action against Pakistan in order to hide India’s crime and to dilute the anger of Indian public. His mentors egged him to do something big to turn the tide.
Short of the option of limited war, Modi gave a go-ahead to a batch of four Rafael on the night of 29/39 Apr with defined targets across the LoC.
Pakistan had received the early warning and was prepared for the intrusion. The LoC was jammed by the Electronic Warfare Unit and the J-10C equipped with PL 15 BVR missiles were positioned. Stunned by electronic jamming, and finding that the defenders were well placed to shoot down the intruding jets, the Indian pilots rushed back to safety.
Yet another concerting thing is refusal of France to hand over code of Rafael and to transfer its technology to India. IAF cannot use its indigenously produced missiles in Rafael.
This flop of much hyped Rafael was another heartbreaking news for jingoistic Modi as well as for the big powers standing behind him. It was heart wrenching for Modi to see his patrons taking a neutral stance and trying to de-escalate the volatile situation, rapidly inching towards a full scale conventional war and to a nuclear exchange.
Testing of two short range ballistic missiles (Abdali and Fateh) in the last two days with ranges of 450 km and 120 km respectively, will buttress Nassar missiles with the range of 650 km.
These missiles capable of delivering tactical nuclear weapons are ideally suited for the battle of frontiers to defeat India’s trumpeted Cold Start Doctrine and limited war.
Pakistan is well covered in the areas of surveillance, jamming, satellite monitoring and communication, cyber space and high technology.
Pakistan’s insistence for a neutral probe of the Pahalgam incident added to the woes of Modi. India is neither furnishing evidence nor is agreeing to hold a neutral inquiry. The reason is obvious. Truth prevails and the lies have no ground to stand upon.
Under such insalubrious conditions, Modi has played the last card short of war to stop the flow of water in Baghliar dam and next in Salal dam.
He has taken this impractical step well knowing that it is neither feasible, nor it will intimidate Pakistan.
India can lessen the water flow but cannot stop it. He has no means to store surplus water, particularly when he has not been able to consume 7% of the three western rivers. The result will be flooding and devastation of its own areas.
The latest offensive act of India is designed to provoke Pakistan and compel it to trigger a war so that it could declare Pakistan an offender.
I must compliment the resolve of the Govt and the armed forces, particularly of the PAF.
Last but not the least, Gen Asim Munir is the man behind the grand show. His grit, determination, firmness and steadfastness has astounded the world, and he is looked at with awe and admiration. New York Times magazine has declared him as a man of steel nerves. It states that he is among the strongest military leaders of the world.
Three cheers to him and his generals and all ranks of the Pak Army who are fighting the foreign paid terrorists for the last 24 years, and are also stoically facing six times bigger enemy country India.
Apart from a neutral inquest for which the UK and Iran have been invited, Pakistan has asked for a special UNSC meeting to discuss India’s war mongering and water terrorism and provoking a nuclear war.
Finding himself in a blind alley, cornered Modi is looking for a face saving. Instead of apologizing, he expects Pakistan to apologise. He fails to see that Pakistan is no longer a defaulting soft and compliant state but it has transformed into a hard state.
The writer is retd Brig Gen, war veteran, defence and strategic analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum, Pakistan Patron-in-chief CDS Think Tank, Administrator Fact Check, takes part in TV talk shows.
