Upheaval in South Asia and the Middle East
By Brigadier (Retd) Asif Haroon Raja
During his 2024 election campaign and after assuming office on January 6, 2025, Donald Trump repeatedly pledged to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. This promise resonated strongly with American Muslim voters in seven key swing states, significantly contributing to his electoral victory.
Portraying himself as a peacemaker rather than a warmonger, Trump nonetheless reignited tensions with China, intensifying the trade war. Under the banner of “Make America Great Again,” he extended his confrontational approach not only toward rivals like China but also toward neighbouring countries such as Mexico, Canada, and Panama, as well as traditional allies in the European Union, the UK, and NATO.
Trump’s economic strategy aimed to compel American and European investors and manufacturers to relocate their operations from China back to the U.S. in a bid to revive the struggling American economy, reduce debt, reinvigorate the domestic manufacturing sector, and restore the country’s global prestige. He appointed several billionaires, including his close associate Elon Musk, to key cabinet positions and began issuing sweeping directives to implement his agenda.
Additionally, Trump introduced a harsh immigration policy, viewing immigrants as both a burden and a security risk.
However, his tariff policy backfired amid stiff resistance from China and growing discontent among Western allies. He was eventually forced to scale down the tariff rates. Similarly, his immigration policy sparked widespread protests—most notably in Los Angeles, prompting the deployment of Republican Guards to restore order. His popularity began to plummet.
Despite his public stance against war, Trump continued to provide financial and military support to Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza. He pressured the 1.8 million residents of Gaza to vacate the enclave, reportedly with the intention of transforming the coastal strip into a Riviera-style resort—reserved not for Palestinians, but for Americans, Israelis, and foreign elites, with U.S. construction firms standing to benefit.
In Eastern Europe, Trump encouraged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to launch a covert operation. He gave a green light to the CIA, MI6, and Mossad to smuggle drones into Russia, which were then used in strikes on Russian air bases on June 1, reportedly destroying 40 fighter jets. The objective was to pressure President Putin into signing a peace agreement. Russia retaliated by launching Orin-Shik hypersonic missiles at Kyiv and issued stern warnings of further escalation.
With strategic interest in Pakistan’s nuclear program and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Trump covertly supported a joint Indian-Israeli military operation against Pakistan in early May 2025. Confident of Pakistan’s perceived weakness, the U.S. hoped for a swift victory by its regional allies. Trump maintained plausible deniability, feigning U.S. neutrality as India launched unprovoked aggression. The West remained conspicuously silent.
However, when Pakistan gained the upper hand on May 10, Trump hastily brokered a ceasefire to rescue India, taking credit for averting a potential nuclear exchange.
As Indo-Pak tensions simmered due to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s belligerence, Trump shifted his focus to Iran. After issuing repeated threats to force Iran into a new nuclear deal on American terms, he authorized Israel to strike Iran on June 13—just two days before scheduled U.S.-Iran talks in Oman.
Since October 2023, bolstered by lavish U.S. military and financial support, Israel had been systematically dismantling Iran’s regional security network, which included Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in southern Iraq. Gaza was reduced to rubble, becoming a mass graveyard for civilians.
In 2024, Israel carried out two airstrikes against Iran. Though these were met with Iranian retaliation, they served primarily to map invasion routes and targets and to assess Iran’s response mechanisms.
A covert operation—similar to that in Russia—was initiated in early 2024. Hundreds of Mossad agents, assisted by British, French, and reportedly Indian spies, infiltrated Iran. Miniature drones and missiles were smuggled into the country and positioned near sensitive installations. Thousands of local informants monitored the movements of top Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists around the clock.
Despite several high-profile assassinations—including that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and two Iranian nuclear scientists—Iran’s internal security services failed to detect the extent of the espionage campaign.
Israeli airstrikes began only after Iran’s air defence systems were disabled, its top military commanders and scientists assassinated, and a temporary leadership vacuum created. Major nuclear and military sites, including in Tehran, were targeted. Seventy-eight people were killed and dozens more injured.
Remarkably, Iran restored its air defence systems and launched a massive retaliatory strike within 18 hours. Iran fired 280 ballistic and hypersonic missiles in phases, striking Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, and other key Israeli cities. The damage was extensive.
Over the last five days, Israel’s defence ministry, key military facilities, and even a nuclear site were reportedly hit. Iran claims to have downed three F-35 fighter jets and captured a woman pilot alive. The extensive spy network within Iran has been largely dismantled, with 74 agents arrested.
Iran appears cautious about provoking direct confrontation with the U.S. but has warned regional actors—particularly Jordan—to refrain from intercepting its drones and missiles or face punitive measures.
In the face of Israeli aggression, the U.S. and European powers remained silent. However, the moment Iran retaliated, they united in condemnation and issued dire threats. Britain has deployed warships to the region, while France and Germany have expressed readiness to intervene.
By the morning of June 14, jubilation in Israel had turned to fear. Citizens sought refuge in bunkers while panic spread. Meanwhile, Iranians celebrated on the streets. Western leaders, including Trump, have now shifted focus to halting the conflict and restoring peace.
Netanyahu formally requested Trump on June 14 to join the war since Israel’s munitions had failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities with its buster bombs.
The US shifted its THAAD from Ukraine to Israel and positioned 31 oil refuelling tankers (KC-46A and KC-135) in about six air bases in Europe on the night of 15/16 June. A guided missile destroyer and Patriot-3 missile battery have been alerted and the USS aircraft carrier Nimitz is heading towards the Middle East from South China to reinforce Carl Vinson. These assets are being shifted to safeguard the US airbases in the region against possible Iran’s attacks. Reportedly, twelve F-22s and F-35s are also being deployed in the Gulf.
The designs of the US, Israel and India have dangerous diabolical ambitions in the region. Whether the US will join the war is a big question! If it does, Russia, North Korea and China will not sit idle. The situation is fast racing towards a world war.
Pakistan, for its part, has maintained a neutral stance in the Israel-Iran conflict. However, it is closely monitoring the situation. Pakistani intelligence is studying the flight paths, timings, and tactics employed by aerial and missile systems used in the conflict to extract strategic insights.
Anti-Pakistan elements are making efforts to drag Pakistan into the war and a disinformation campaign has been launched. India is watching and monitoring the unfolding events and is eagerly looking for an opportunity to strike Pakistan and avenge its humiliation.
About the Author
Brigadier (Retd) Asif Haroon Raja is a war veteran, he is a defence and political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman of Thinkers Forum Pakistan, and Patron-in-Chief of CDS Think Tank. He is a frequent participant in seminars and television talk shows.
