Indo-US evil designs
The US being an imperialist power is governed by a strong hegemonic impulse. It wants to convert the world into its global village and to maintain its uni-polarism for next 100 years. 9/11 was projected as a holocaust to justify brutal war against Muslim States and steal its resources. Muslim specific crusade launched by the neo-cons was given the cover name of Global War on Terror (GWOT). It was launched by USA and its western allies to accomplish their strategic and economic objectives in South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia. All those opposing US policies were dubbed as terrorists or their abettors/sympathizers. Terrorism was not defined and all freedom movements taking place within the Muslim world were put in the category of terrorism.
It is now widely believed that Pakistan and not Afghanistan was the actual target of USA. Acquisition of weapon grade nuclear power by conventionally strong Pakistan was unacceptable to US, Israel and India. The trio in concert with UK and Germany schemed to destabilize, denuclearize, de-Islamize, Balkanize Pakistan using covert means from Afghan soil.
In 2005, a report by the US National Intelligence Council and the CIA forecast a “Yugoslav-like fate” for Pakistan “in a decade with the country rived by civil war, bloodshed and inter-provincial rivalries. NIC-CIA opined that Pakistan was slated to become a “failed state” by 2015, “as it would be affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons”. It stated that “in a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the Central government’s control will in all probability be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi”. According to the NIC-CIA scenario, which Washington intended to carry out: “Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction”.
It is by no means accidental that the 2005 National Intelligence Council- CIA report had predicted a “Yugoslav-like fate” for Pakistan pointing to the impacts of “economic mismanagement” as one of the causes of political break-up and balkanization. In actual fact, the “economic mismanagement” and chaos is the outcome of IMF-World Bank prescriptions, which invariably trigger hyperinflation and precipitate indebted countries into extreme poverty.
Lt Col Ralph Peters writing in the June 2006 issue of The Armed Forces Journal, presented a map in which it was suggested that Pakistan should be broken up, leading to the formation of a separate country: “Greater Balochistan” or “Free Balochistan”. The latter would incorporate the Pakistani and Iranian Baloch provinces into a single political entity. The map showed Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) incorporated into Afghanistan “because of its linguistic and ethnic affinity”. This proposed fragmentation, which broadly reflected US foreign policy, would have reduced Pakistani territory to approximately 50% of its present land area. Pakistan would have lost a large part of its coastline on the Arabian Sea.
Although the map did not officially reflect Pentagon doctrine, it had been used in a training program at NATO’s Defense College for senior military officers. This map, as well as other similar maps, has been used at the National War Academy as well as in military planning circles. The US course consisted in fomenting social, ethnic and factional divisions and political fragmentation, including the territorial breakup of Pakistan. This course of action was also dictated by US war plans in relation to both Afghanistan and Iran. Like the US, India too nurtures evil designs against Pakistan and has never reconciled to its existence. In the ongoing proxy war, Indian RAW is in the lead and is fully involved in FATA, Balochistan and in Karachi to breakup Pakistan into small Quasi States. Exactly eight years after Ralph Peters map, Dr. Amarjit Singh from India has come out with almost a similar map showing fragmented Pakistan.
For the accomplishment of their objectives, Pakistan was befriended and then arm-twisted to change its Afghan policy, and join the US led coalition to fight the GWOT. Pak-India friendship treaty signed in January 2004 was part of the plan to allow free hand to RAW to carry out sabotage and subversion. Pakistan was forced to induct regular troops in South Waziristan (SW) in 2002 to flush out Al-Qaeda (CIA’s creation) and its sympathizers and later asked to extend the military operation to other parts of FATA. CIA-FBI established outposts in FATA, which with the help of clandestine setup Spider Web, killed over 400 pro-Pakistan Maliks, clerics and elders to create space for TTP.
In 2004, Balochistan was heated up with the help of Baloch insurgents. Idea was to bog down as many regular troops in FATA and Balochistan, and create favorable conditions for the Indian military to operationalize its Cold Start doctrine. Induction of Blackwater in 2008 to make major urban centres turbulent and to help in setting up of CIA network was timed with establishment of NRO cleansed government. Indo-US-western-Israeli propaganda war was launched to discredit Army and ISI, create alarm about the nukes falling in wrong hands, paint Pakistan as the most dangerous and a failing State. The TTP and BLA/BRA were patronized by foreign agencies to create fear and lawlessness. All this was done to bleed Pakistan’s economy and to whisk away the nukes.
After creating a hot situation in Bajaur, Swat and Malakand Division and later in SW, the military was left with no choice but to conduct major operations in 2009. Success achieved by security forces was a huge setback for the schemers. Thereon, Pakistan was continuously pressured from 2010 onwards to launch another major operation in North Waziristan (NW) disregarding its security, socio-economic and political compulsions. The US remained obsessed with the notion that military success in Afghanistan hinged entirely upon elimination of safe havens of Haqqani Network in NW. Gen David Petraeus when in command of ISAF refused to launch the planned operation in Kandahar until and unless Pak Army cleared NW.
Operations in NW had a political price tag as well as socio-economic penalties. With 150, 000 troops tied in various parts of FATA and KP, tens of thousands of IDPs living in relief camps, economy in doldrums and extremely weak government involved in high-scale corruption and mis-governance, Indian and Afghanistan’s meddlesome role in Pakistan and the US double-game, Pakistan was not in a happy position to undertake another major operation and feed hundreds of thousands of IDPs displaced from NW and also tackle the blowback when no national intelligence policy and counter terrorism policy had been framed. Army and FC had suffered heavy casualties in Operation Rah-e-Rast and Rah-e-Nijat and the US had suspended release of close support fund.
The US refused to understand that there were over 50 terrorist groups married to each other and involved in anti-State activities. By that time it had been ascertained that TTP was being assisted by foreign agencies. Pro-Pakistan militant groups could be counted on fingers. Maulvi Nazir heading militants from Ahmadzai Wazir tribe in SW was pro-Pakistan and had remained tied to peace agreement since 2007 but he was killed by drone in January 2013. The only other Pakistani militant group which was apparently friendly was Hafiz Gul Bahadur led group of Othmanzai Wazirs in NW. In addition there was a faction of Haqqanis under Sirajuddin settled in NW since 1980 which was also considered as friendly since it had never involved itself in anti-Pakistan activities. However these groups were aligned with the TTP elements settled in NW in 2010 after they were pushed out from SW in end 2009.
While Swat to a large extent had been pacified, SW had not been made wholly safe for the IDPs to return. Civil administration was reluctant to come forward and take over its administrative and development duties from the Army. Judiciary was not playing its part to convict terrorists and was freeing them. All religious parties, PML-N, PTI, JUI-F and Jamaat-e-Islami were against operation in NW. Their main concern was drone attacks and not militancy. The government and Army were dubbed as pro-US and an operation would have been projected as US driven. India kept playing Mumbai incident to keep Pakistan on the back foot. Western border was activated in 2011 by runaway Fazlullah led militants duly patronized by Afghan military/intelligence and other foreign agencies and cross border attacks became a norm forcing the Army to deploy additional troops. LoC in Kashmir was heated up in January 2013 and again in August-September on made-up pretexts.
Under such circumstances, no respectable nation could be compelled to open another front and march its forces against its own people just because of American diktat. It was generally opined that Americans would soon depart from Afghanistan leaving behind up to 10,000 lonesome soldiers, but the FATA tribesmen and Afghans were here to stay. With regard to the concern of NW acting as safe haven for anti-western forces in Afghanistan, it was argued that if around half a million armed personnel and pro-US tribesmen deployed in Afghanistan couldn’t guarantee the security of ISAF forces, how could Pakistani forces ensure their security from Pakistani soil? They reminded the US that it must recognize that Taliban hostility is attributable to foreign armed presence.
It may be recalled that 2011 was a very heavy year for Pakistan and its security apparatus. It had to bear the impact of Raymond Davis incident, Abbottabad sneak raid, memo scandal and massacre of 24 soldiers at Salala post. Till July 2012, Pak-US relations were at their lowest ebb. Separatist movement in Balochistan patronized by foreign powers had intensified and issues of missing persons and mutilated bodies were being drummed up to malign the image of Army, FC and Agencies. Supreme Court Under former chief justice was soft towards separatists and harsh on FC. Karachi was also on fire due to high spate of target killings.
Refusing to take cognizance of the security constraints of Pakistan, the US kept intensifying pressure on Pakistan through drone strikes, incursions and secret operations. For the attainment of its primary objective of disabling Pakistan’s nuclear program, the schemers focused on the Army and ISI, the two institutions that stood guard over 15 nuclear sites. Own media, NGOs and pseudo intellectuals helped the detractors in their game. The US wanted Pakistan to reinforce failure with ill intention of bogging down additional Corps size force in NW to create imbalance on eastern front for the benefit of India. At the same time, the US kept bolstering the economic and military strength of India. The US went out of the way to patronize India and made all out efforts to make it the key country in Afghanistan.
Series of conspiratorial plans hatched by CIA-RAW led intelligence agencies against Pakistan have been foiled by the Army and ISI. Operation Zarb-e-Azb launched in NW is proving to be the last nail in the coffin of TTP and its affiliates. The dream of USA has been shattered by Afghan resistance forces and its super power status is at stake. India also suffers from self-evoked insecurity syndrome. After its scheduled withdrawal after two months, the US is keen to put India in charge of Afghanistan. In other words, a guzzler has been nominated to act responsibly and protect the sheep given under its care. India which gobbled up 565 Princely States including those wanting to join Pakistan in 1947, two-thirds Kashmir, and later on wolfing Sikkim and Goa, and then slicing the eastern limb of Pakistan in 1971, it is now greedily eying at the other half of Pakistan as well as Afghanistan to fulfill its longtime dream of Akhand Bharat.
Knowing India’s track record, it will be utterly foolish to expect a hungry wolf to behave responsibly and avoid making a sumptuous repast out of the sheep given under its protection. Resource rich Central Asian Republics too would be its easy preys. The wicked wolf probably doesn’t know that a lion lurking in the shadow is anxiously looking for an opportunity to tear it apart.
The writer is a retired Brig, war veteran/defence analyst/columnist/author of five books, Director Research Measac Research Centre. firstname.lastname@example.org