The Qadri factor
Posted by Sumera
Mr. Tahirul Qadri, the chief of Minhaj ul Quran gave a new impetus to the speculations in Pakistani politics. This Qadri favour factor brought changes in the political scenario in the country, where majority of the people was of the opinion that PTI will effect the election 2013 results as well as the vote bank of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Group) PML (N). After his arrival new alliances started emerging on the basis of his slogan of “Riasat Bachao”, which is similar to Pervaiz Musharaf slogan of “Sab Sia Pehlee Pakistan”. It looks like another “Tsunami” but in fact, it is not.
The present development has a background which shows that it is a well-planned and calculated strategy to provide a platform for Pervaiz Musharraf to land again safely, that in turn to provide a “safe cover” to the then PPP government and neutralize Pakistan Tehrik Insaf (PTI). PML (N) is in an uncertain situation. Joining or opposing, have consequences for its future, but the amnesia of Pakistani will help them to bail out.
During a question-answer session with media in India, on a question of Umar Shanker of NDTV, Perviaz Musharaf replied, “it is not like that I can not go to Pakistan, I can go to Pakistan. But there is a need of a strategy for my return. I took an impulsive decision once, to go back but then I reversed it because my friends told me that this was not the correct time to come back.
I will definitely go back but on the correct time because I set an objective of how to break the status quo in Pakistan? We are making a strategy for it and its timing is very important. And for that reason I am waiting. When the elections will be held in Pakistan, and they yet not announced the date of elections, and when the interim government will be formed and there is no clearance on the date of the interim government, when these things are a little bit evident, then I will take a decision for a correct time to return”.
The officially unconfirmed announcement of elections in May 2013 by Qamar Zaman Kaira and the confirmed announcement of Farhatullah Babar as the last day of the present government as March 17, 2013 gives the indication of a time slot for the interim government and elections. After March 17, the interim government will be responsible to hold elections. Months are specified and it is easy for Pervaiz Musharaf to fix a date for his arrival. The Chief Justice Iftikhar Ahmed Chaudhary will be retiring this year. There is no indication that the present government or any future government will give him any extension which is another positive development for Pervaiz Musharaf.
Welcoming Tahir ul Qadri by Mutahida Quami Movement (MQM) and later joining hands by the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) is another step or part of Pervaiz Musharaf’s strategy because both the political parties worked closely with him in the past.
Besides political interests, the MQM is also supporting Pervaiz Musharaf on ethnic basis. Pervaiz Musharaf is the favorite of the United States of America (USA), because they worked together in the past and the USA can pursue and forward any goals and objectives through Pervaiz Musharaf in Pakistan as well as in the region. The USA and NATO are leaving Afghanistan and negotiation with Taliban has already been started in Paris and Afghanistan. The USA has always been involved in Pakistani politics and at this crucial point the US will want a friendly government in Islamabad and Kabul. Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif are not suitable candidate for serving the US interests in the region, while PPP is no more a favorite party inside the country.
In this situation, Pervaiz Musharaf is the only alternative who can maintain the status quo, favorable to the USA and NATO, for another five years.
While in an interview on CNBC on April 9, 2012, he categorically said to fill the gap of third option in Pakistani politics in future and the reasons for the cancellation of his trips to Pakistan. The unconditional joining of MQM and PML (Q) with Tahirul Qadri on none issues and a tremendous media attention is not accidental or the tri-partite desire for a free and fair election. MQM and PML (Q) have a long list of corruption, malpractices, rigging elections cases.
Two wrong never make a right and so is their alliance and support to Tahirul Qadri. It can provide an umbrella or can increase their vote bank, but certainly it will not bring any change, because a change is not in their interest. The present problems of Pakistan are not the election of ideal candidates for its assemblies but its survival. If they are not ideal people sitting in the US congress or the assemblies in India, how is it possible that ideal people will be selected, elected and sit in the assemblies of Pakistan within 2 months, who has no democratic system in place in the last 65 years?
The security situation, energy crisis, economy, corruption, unemployment, lack of basic health facilities etc are the problems, which should be on top of the list of every political, social or religious movement in the country. Marching to Islamabad and damaging the economy for a few more billion rupees for the reformation of the election process is not worth it unless there is no other hidden agenda.
We have to wait and see when Pervaiz Musharaf jumps in the game, when Tahirul Qadri changes his stance, and the same contractors enter the assemblies with new faces and when Tahirul Qadri uses the rest of his air ticket back to Canada.