World in a State of Flux

By Asif Haroon Raja

The world is in turmoil and events are moving towards confrontation between bigger powers. Owing to its evil acts, the Evil Empire wanting to convert the world into a global village has made the world insecure and is now seen as the biggest human threat the world has ever known. The so-called invincible US military and NATO have been roundly defeated by the ill-clad and ill-equipped Afghan resistance forces and claims of their invincibility lay in shreds. The sole super power has lost ground after 9/11 and it is beginning to crack as it rapidly freefalls towards impending economic collapse. This situation has arisen because of its military adventurism and patronization of global war on terror and proxy wars the world over.

The US triggered war on terror which is Muslim specific has estranged the Muslims. Dr Michel Chossudovsky has stated that terrorism is made in the US and that terrorists are not the product of the Muslim world. According to him, “the US global war on terrorism was used to enact anti-terrorism laws that demonised Muslims in the Western world and created Islamophobia”. Al-Qaeda and ISIS were created by CIA to protect Zionists interests in Middle East. In the backdrop of unsettled Palestine and Kashmir disputes, continuation of aggressive policies by US backed Israel and India, destruction of so many Muslim States by the US-NATO forces, Middle East getting engulfed in foreign manipulated sectarian war and chaos; unfairness of US controlled UN, unjust US conceived world order and international system of justice, demonization of Islam, the Muslims hold the US accountable for their sufferings.

While capitalist system which is anti-poor has failed to provide relief to the humanity, the US carved international order has made the world more turbulent and chaotic. 1% rich controls over 50% of world resources, thereby widening the gulf between rich and poor. Europe remains a central figure in global system since EU’s economy is the largest in the world. Since 2008, it is in turmoil and hasn’t been able to solve its socio-politico-economic problems and is now in dire economic crisis. Relative prosperity of Germany and Austria when seen in context with economic difficulties of Spain, Greece and southern Europe is threatening the viability of EU. Britain, Germany, France, and Italy are reported to have defied Washington’s orders and applied to join the Chinese-led Asian Investment Bank. Australia, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Luxembourg might also join. This new bank, together with the BRICS Bank, will provide countries with escape routes from Washington’s domination. The formidable economic alliance of the emerging powerhouse BRICS nations coalescing behind the renewed partnership strength of Russia and China are leading the way toward global independence from the Western central banking cabal.

US-Europe alliance which has survived since 1945 has begun to crack. It will crack more as the Russian-Chinese alliance unfolds its potentials and when European capitals understand that hegemonic Washington has put their existence at risk in order to try to prevent Russia’s rise. As a result, the global balance of power is dramatically shifting, and so has economic pendulum shifted from the west to the east where China is emerging as an economic giant and a budding super power. Besides China, the US has also to contend with resurgent Russia and crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Russia under Putin has begun to reassert its clout in the global politics and in close cooperation with its strategic partner China; it has the potential to rise again as a leading player of the world in the future.
In Ukraine, despite the peace agreement in February 2015, fighting is continuing between the Russia backed rebels and Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine. Over 6000 have died since April 2014. Poroshenko is dragging his feet over the question of granting political autonomy to breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions as agreed to in Brussels agreement. He is seeking more sanctions against Russia, asking Europe to boycott FIFA World Cup hosted by Moscow and also demanding war against Putin over Ukraine. Kiev regime is an incendiary time-bomb planted by Washington to sever EU-Russia relations.

The US military with NATO Navy is carrying out exercises in the Baltic region and NATO is also conducting naval drills in the Black Sea. The US Army also undertook flag marches in Eastern Europe to boost the morale of former Baltic States. Russia is getting ready to counteract and repel land-sea-air military aggression on its western, northern, southern and eastern borders simultaneously, as massive drills of all military branches are underway across Russia. Motorized infantry, combat aviation and Spetznaz troops have been put on alert in all nine time zones of the Russian Federation, including the Volga region, Urals, Western Siberia, the Far East region and the Pacific, the North Caucasus and along the borders of NATO member states from the Arctic through to the Baltic and Black Sea. The operational zone of the Northern Fleet has been expanded to the Norwegian Sea, and the number of deployed naval task groups has been increased to five.

The Defense Ministry reported on Wednesday that Russian marines from Temryuk in south Russia’s Krasnodar region have been put on full combat readiness and are training next to the Kerch Strait connecting the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The units are conducting exercises in conditions similar to real military activities, using simulation tools to train counteracting subversive groups and repelling enemy amphibious assault landings. Russia’s strategic command has put mechanized troops of the Eastern Military District, deployed on the island of Sakhalin in the Pacific, on the highest levels of combat alert. Up to 3,000 troops and nearly 1,000 military vehicles are training defense of the coast in close cooperation with the Air Force. Over 30 Army Aviation crews are being relocated from airfields in the Leningrad and Smolensk regions to a military airfield in the Arctic. Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters are set to cover over 1,500 kms. About 80 military pilots of the Eastern Command are taking part in simulated aerial combats that includes bomb-dropping and unguided missiles firing, using Su-25, Su-27SM, Su-24M2 assault and fighter jets. Assault helicopter pilots are training live ammo shooting, ultra-low flying and evading air defenses.

Although Russia is looking for an opportunity to spearhead the global tussle, but does not possess the capability to fight the US led west militarily. Although China is economically much stronger than Russia, it alone is not in a position to bring a change at global level since its overall strategy is so far defensive, and its ideological influence is confined to its own country. China is not likely to change its national policy from defensive to offensive till the completion of its 4-point modernization program by 2025. It knows that its 40% liquid assets are lying abroad, which the US can block. More so, Taiwan is China’s Achilles heel. Hence the onus to change the world order hinges upon Russia-China joint effort.

China will however, not compromise on Korean Peninsula, and now Afghanistan-Pakistan region, which with recently changed circumstances have become of prime importance to China. It will not let the juggernaut of US-EU sanctions to adversely harm Russia since implosion of Russian Federation would have adverse impact on China’s internal order and would make China more vulnerable to Indo-US encirclement plan. China-Russia managed SCO, which is the most vibrant organization in Central Eurasia, BRICS and Bank of China are economic platforms that can checkmate ‘Asia Pivot’ strategy and deflate dollar. Construction of economic corridor linking Kashgar with Gawadar Seaport will also go a long way in strengthening this vital region and helping China to emerge as a super power and Pakistan as an Asian Tiger. Visit of Chinese President to Pakistan on April xx will speed up flow of China’s financial assistance and development of Economic Corridor/Gawadar Port.

While Pak security forces have achieved spectacular results in war on terror in the northwest and so have Rangers-Police in Karachi against criminal elements, all in their bid to improve internal law and order situation and to salvage Pakistan’s dwindling economy, Afghanistan is going through delicate transitory phase. Taliban-Ashraf Ghani led regime patch up to share government is not materializing. Things would become difficult for Afghan security forces in spring which will be campaigning season for Taliban. In the meanwhile, India in its quest of becoming a global power is recklessly increasing its defence budget and buying latest arms and technology to overawe Pakistan and China and in the process is unbalancing the regional equilibrium.

The US-NATO air power is engaged in supporting ground troops of Iraq, Iraqi/Turkish/Syrian Kurds, and Iraqi Shia militias and is also bombing ISIS positions in Syria. Iran’s military is playing a key role in retaking captured areas from ISIS in Iraq. Position of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has suddenly become highly critical since its one flank has been threatened by Shia Houthis (Ansarullah) in Yemen backed by Iran. Houthis are making desperate efforts to take control of 40km wide Bab al Mandab which is strategically a very important chokepoint connecting Persian Gulf via Indian Ocean with Mediterranean Sea via Red Sea. Its control will block Israel’s access to Indian Ocean via Red Sea and thus prevent its Navy to threaten Iran in Persian Gulf/Hormuz. Houthi regime in Yemen led by interim President Abdel Malik has further fortified Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis.
The other flank of KSA is threatened by ISIS in Iraq, which is against House of Saud and has threatened to capture Mecca and Medina. KSA is also concerned about its Shia heavy eastern province and Iran busy consolidating its Shia arc in the region. KSA and four Gulf States are bombing Houthis positions in an effort to re-install fugitive Hadi, who has taken refuge in Oman. Egypt and Jordon have agreed to come in support. Oman has stayed away. King Salman is banking more on Pakistan and has officially sought military support. Pak government has given assurance to him that it will help in safeguarding the territorial integrity of KSA and defence of the two holy places.

Ukraine, militarized Korean Peninsula, Middle East where ISIS has emerged as the biggest threat to Iraq, Syria, Libya and Arab Kingdoms, unresolved Palestinian and Kashmir disputes, sectarian war in Iraq, civil war in Syria and turmoil in Yemen are undoubtedly most dangerous flashpoints. At the same time, agenda of the US to change Middle East boundaries to harness its oil/mineral resources, Israel’s agenda of creating ‘Greater Israel’ and Indo-US-Israeli design to let Muslims kill Muslims remains unchanged. The world is in a state of flux and unless the bubbling infernos are defused in time, or providence cracks up the Evil Empire, 2015 is likely to witness devastating global changes.

The writer is a retired Brig, defence analyst/columnist/author of five books, Director Measac Research Centre, Member Board of Directors TFP. asifharoonraja@gmail.com