Indo-Pak: Modi Misadventure may Lead to Nuclear War
(Pakistan has second strike nuclear capability but may launch first, in case India crosses threshold)
By Zaheerul Hassan
Pakistan has returned Wing Commander Abbinandan Varthaman an Indian pilot on 1st March 2019 at Wagah border crossing of Punjab at Lahore. He was shot down during the first publicly acknowledged dog fight between two neighbouring nuclear states in 48 years on 27 February 2019. Reportedly, New Delhi has also removed Air Marshal Harikumar from Western Air Command, on 28 February 2019.
Moreover, rumors spread in national and international media that on 27 February India in collaboration with Israel planned missile attack on Karachi and Bahawalpur from Rajistan Sector. According to the media, the plan was leaked out by intelligence sources. Thus, Pakistan shared this information to friendly countries and conveyed India through them that Pakistani response would be three times more than her likely strike; thereby India perforce had to dropped the idea of missile strike in Pakistan.
Recently, tension escalated between two countries when convey of Indian Para Forces in Pulwama hit by a young Kashmiri freedom fighter Mr Dar on 14 February 2019. The situation further tightened when Indian Air Force (IAF) four Mirage 2000 aircrafts deliberately, crossed LOC and International border and reached Balakot of KPK Province of Pakistan.
India claimed that over 300 militants killed in an air strike of 21 minutes that started at 3:50 am, on 25 February 2019 but it proved total bogus information. Pakistan strongly condemned Indian intrusion and decided to retaliate with force while locking six targets inside of Kashmir and shooting down of two Indian MIg 21 aircrafts.
In this regard, military spokesperson Major General Asif Ghafoor has rejected Indian claim of hitting any headquarter of Madrassa of Jesh Muhammad through fake Indian Air Force intrusion in Balakot. He also clarified that there is no killing took place here in Pakistani area. He very rightly stated that India should wait for our surprise respond which will be totally different
Interestingly, renowned English newspaper “The Guardian” published a story in which reported declared IAF intrusion as posturing strike. Many other well-known English prints and electronic media like News yark times, Washington Post and BBC clearly negated Indian stance with relations to surgical strike
Pakistan responded Indian aggressiveness with full strength as claimed by military spokesman in a press conference while stating, “Now it’s our time to respond. The response will come at the time and place of our choosing.”
Therefore, Pakistani air crafts surprised India as promised through successfully locking and dropping of few bombs around certain important military installations including air bases in occupied area of Kashmir. On the next very day PAF shot down two IAF aircrafts, arrested pilot and destroyed many posts, check post located in Indian occupied Kashmir too.
Thus, Pakistan gave clear message that any misadventure will from her adversary will be dealt with iron response. But, unfortunately Modi failed to comprehend it and deliberately kept on aggravating the situation with the help of irresponsible Indian media. By now, complete international community and most of Indian political and scholars have understood that BJP staged a drama to win incoming elections while putting regional peace at stake without releasing that Pakistan is a nuclear state and would not going to spare India in case of any aggression against her.
However, in response to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s war Jingoism, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan had behaved maturely and urged his counterpart to let’s sit down for resolving the most burning Kashmir and other conflicting issues through peaceful dialogues. At the same time, head of all political parties, armed forces, elements of national power reiterated that nation is ready for any eventuality and doomed Indian aggression and its desire of further escalation.
Moreover, Prime Minister Modi, Indian media and extremists’ military mind set despite digesting defeat are not interested in defusing the situations and brought both South Asian countries at the brink of war, without realizing that it can convert into nuclear conflict.
Despite, Indian ill motives, its bleak state of preparedness, poor and deteriorated conditions of weaponry and other war equipment, Pakistan did not make any attempt to exploit these weakness but of course is stressing hard to de-escalate the situation. Notably, Pakistani armed forces with regards to preparedness, weaponry due to their involvement in war against terrorism is far ahead from its traditional rivals.
In fact, sitting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party lost elections and power in the states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh that energized the main opposition Congress party, which formed government in all three.it, was all due to Modi’s extreme policies all over India.
However, Pulwama incident provided a chance to losing BJP to recover the political loss through fueling and warmongering against Pakistan. Moreover, without investigating Modi government put embargo on export relationship with Pakistan.
India did not release the volume of trade between India and Pakistan is approximately $2.15 billion. Indian exports to Pakistan are worth $1.8 billion, while Pakistan’s exports to India are worth $350 million. Thus, ban on trade especially import would ultimately give benefit of saving foreign exchange to Pakistan.
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World at large knew that South Asia is home of two well trained and the largest armies which are equipped with nuclear arsenals. Reportedly India is in possession of 100-130 whereas Pakistan has 130-150 nuclear arsenals. But quality and technically wise Pakistani has complete supremacy over India in technologically nuclear arsenals are much better than her rival Indi and nuclear hit probability testified chances in accuracy are 100%. Addition of Inter Ballistic Missile and introduction of tactical nuclear weapons in the system had also changed the threat perception between two countries. Pakistani Inter ballistic missiles are covering entire India and Israel.
Defence and political Strategists unanimous opined that both Imran Khan and Modi cannot afford war and has to behaved responsible being nuclear states. Thus, UN , global powers and other International community need to intervene effectively and put their influence on India: to stop state terrorism against Kashmiris, resolving Kashmir and other issues through dialogues and on priority, conducting plebiscite under UN arrangements . Lastly, we must know that Pakistan cannot afford traditional war against the second world largest army and likely to resort for nuclear war since she has second strike nuclear capability but may launch first, in case India crosses threshold.
The writer can be approach through zameer36@gmail.com
