Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: From Shared Brotherhood to Conflict and Betrayal – Part Five

By Asif Haroon Raja

Water Terrorism by India as the 2nd Exploitative Front

India has been indulging in water terrorism against Pakistan for a long time. Its strategy has been to control the flow of the rivers governed by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 by constructing a large number of dams and hydroelectric projects in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

The Treaty allocates the three Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) primarily to India, while the three Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) are allocated primarily to Pakistan.

Pakistan has repeatedly complained that India manipulates water flows by restricting supplies during the critical sowing season, while releasing excessive volumes during periods of low demand, causing floods, damaging crops, and disrupting agricultural productivity.

After the false flag operation at Pehalgam on 22 April 2025, India not only created war hysteria and threatened war, it also suspended the 1960 IWT, declaring that Pakistan will be reduced to a water scarce country and will be denied even a single drop of water.

This unilateral decision exposed India’s immaturity, and complete disregard for international law and binding agreements.
Such reckless weaponization of water has threatened millions of lives and livelihoods.

Pakistan’s Response

Pakistan outrightly rejected this illegal action, and made it clear that any attempt to divert or block its rightful share of water will be considered an act of war.

Even after suffering defeat at the hands of Pakistan in the four-day war from 7 to 10 May 2025, India has so far refused to end the suspension of the Water Treaty.

In the wake of continued suspension, Pakistan is exploring all options: engaging the World Bank, pursuing international arbitration, mobilizing global diplomatic pressure, and strengthening its own water infrastructure and management to protect national interests.

If India continues weaponizing water, Pakistan will be left with no option other than responding with real weapons. It stated, ” If you stop our water, we will respond by choking your breathing space”.
India must never forget that it taught a hard lesson to India in the last war, and is capable of teaching a much bigger lesson in the next war.

There is another potential means of deterring India from stopping or diverting Pakistan’s river waters. China, as the upper riparian state on the Brahmaputra River, is constructing what is expected to be the world’s largest dam.

In the wake of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and its threats to curtail water flows to Pakistan, China has reportedly signalled that, if necessary, it possesses similar leverage over the Brahmaputra’s waters flowing into India. This strategic reality could serve as a deterrent against India’s use of water as a coercive instrument.

Trouble Stoked in AJK to Heat up Another Front

After Operation Bunyan al-Marsous in May 2025, the Pakistan Army effectively nullified the significance of the Line of Control (LoC).

Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir conveyed a message to India that if Pakistan had the capability and determination, it could take back Indian-administered Kashmir; and if India believed it had the strength, it could try to take Azad Kashmir.

Knowing its limitations, India considered it feasible to heat up another front for Pakistan by brewing trouble in Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK). In June, attention shifted to AJK, where the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), reportedly working in concert with the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), has contributed to political unrest and instability in the region.

A significant segment of the Pakistani Kashmiri diaspora in the United Kingdom has aligned itself with the agitators, providing political and media support to their cause. In the process, some activists have employed hostile rhetoric against Pakistan and its institutions, further deepening the conspiracy surrounding the unrest in AJK.

Security agencies have gathered concrete evidence and contend that certain JAAC leaders have played a provocative role in fueling tensions and disorder. Four key figures have gone into hiding and are currently being sought by the authorities in connection with recent disturbances.

The criminal elements are using women and children as human shields to safeguard their sit-ins and violent protests. By placing vulnerable civilians at the forefront, they appear to be seeking to provoke a response from the security forces that could result in casualties.

Any such incident would then be exploited to portray the State guilty of serious human rights violation, thereby attracting international attention, generating adverse publicity, and mobilising international sympathy and support for their cause.

Pakistan’s security establishment maintains that these developments form part of a broader effort to weaken Pakistan internally, create political fault lines in sensitive regions, and undermine its principled stance on the Kashmir dispute.

Preserving stability in AJK and maintaining the linkage between the futures of Azad Kashmir and Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir remain central to Pakistan’s national policy.

Their first target is the twelve refugee seats in the Azad Kashmir legislative framework. If these seats are abolished, the disputed status of Indian-administered Kashmir would effectively disappear, making it an undisputed part of India and paving the way for the LoC to be recognized internationally as a permanent border.

Their second objective is to advocate autonomy only for Azad Kashmir. They will avoid mentioning Indian-administered Kashmir. If autonomy cannot be achieved, they may then demand that Azad Kashmir be formally incorporated as a province of Pakistan.

At first glance, many Pakistanis may find such proposals appealing. However, according to this argument, either outcome would legally and permanently leave Indian-administered Kashmir under Indian control.

The sacrifices of hundreds of thousands of Kashmiri youth who struggled for accession to Pakistan, the suffering of women subjected to abuse by Indian forces, and the martyrdom of countless Kashmiri and Pakistani fighters would be rendered meaningless.

The Pakistani establishment maintains that the future of both Azad Kashmir and Indian-administered Kashmir must be decided together. Until Indian-administered Kashmir is liberated, neither autonomy nor provincial status for Azad Kashmir should be considered.

For this reason, India has financed and supported this hard-line group, along with intermediaries residing abroad, to pursue these objectives.

The cost of a single Indian Rafale fighter aircraft would be enough to place approximately 800,000 Pakistani rupees into the pocket of every resident of Azad Kashmir, implying that purchasing the loyalty of twenty to twenty-five thousand people out of a population of 4.5 million would not be difficult.

The ring leader Shaukat Nawaz, has been arrested. During interrogation, he disclosed his own links with RAW’s operative Col Rumaish Kumar, as well as of other JAAC leaders with India and the TTP.

Geopolitics, Hybrid Warfare and the Regional Security

At around 7:00 p.m. on 03 July, a Mazda truck laden with explosives wreaked havoc at the Panwan Check Post, 10 km away from Jiwani city in Gawadar District on the Makran coast.

This cowardly suicide attack claimed the lives of three personnel of the Pakistan Coast Guards and one brave soldier of the Pakistan Army, while eight other security personnel sustained serious injuries.

This tragic incident compels us to reflect deeply and raises a disturbing question: where is this war heading?

The entire coastal belt of Jiwani and Gwadar is the focal point of Pakistan’s future and regional connectivity. How was a truck carrying such a massive quantity of explosives able to breach multiple layers of security and reach the main building of the check post?

How extensive has the terrorists’ logistics and local facilitation network become? This is a question that can no longer be ignored.

The use of a vehicle in the attack clearly indicates that the enemy has access to substantial funding and sophisticated explosives from across the border, or through external sponsors. Their direct target is the defensive chain that safeguards this strategically important coastline.

Besides Israel and India, several other countries whose economic interests are linked to Balochistan are also contributing to the worsening situation in Makran and Balochistan. They seek to create instability in the region to serve their own interests.

According to credible defence and intelligence sources, operatives of Israel’s intelligence agency, the Mossad, are currently based in IIOJ&K and the United Arab Emirates.

From there, they are reportedly directing and guiding their handlers operating in Balochistan with the objective of keeping the region in a constant state of unrest.
In this context, the recently released video clip from Jiwani is attributed to the BLA.

A close examination of the footage suggests that the BLA is now using highly advanced technological equipment and logistical resources to capture live footage of attacks on defence installations.

The video appears to indicate that their drone operators are highly skilled and professional, while the drones themselves are equipped with advanced technology.

According to the text, these sophisticated technologies and resources are being provided directly to the BLA by Israel and India to enable systematic attacks on Pakistan’s defence installations.

Indo-Russia Defence Agreement

In the wake of the Afghanistan–Russia defence agreement, Russia is expected to install a sophisticated air defence system in Afghanistan and refurbish the country’s ageing Soviet-era military equipment.

According to TTP spokesman Muhammad Khorasani, Afghanistan is also procuring long-range missiles to bolster its offensive capabilities.

Strategic Restraint No Longer A Viable Option

The time has now come to uproot these external networks through a decisive, full-scale military operation against all internal facilitators and terrorist elements without delay, so that the writ of the state can be fully restored.

The enemy has forgotten that a land nourished by the blood of its sons does not produce fear—it produces only unwavering resolve.

People have grown weary of constantly reading and hearing about bombings and killings.

The Khawarij, who continue to tarnish the image of Islam—a religion of peace—through terrorism, have not been deterred even by numerous cross-border targeted operations.

The reason is that their bases are no longer confined to Afghanistan’s border regions; their Afghan patrons have effectively opened the whole country to them as a sanctuary, a development attributed to Afghanistan’s growing friendship with India.

As a result, identifying and pursuing them across Afghanistan’s approximately 650,000 square kilometres has become extremely difficult.

Moreover, the Afghan authorities are providing them with every possible assistance in relocating and changing their places of residence.

Pakistan has sincerely pursued negotiations with Afghanistan for many years in an effort to establish peace and security.

However, the Afghan authorities, who are promoting an arbitrary and extremist interpretation of Islam, have refused to cooperate, and the violent campaign of their alleged protégés continues unabated.

In these circumstances, alongside suppressing the Khawarij, action should also be taken against the Afghan administration supporting them.

Enough is Enough

Those who understand, only force cannot be persuaded by words. Indeed, arguments have failed. It is now believed that not only the Khawarij but also the Afghan leadership must be targeted if the situation is to change.

It is now no longer sufficient to deal only with the thief; one must also eliminate those who shelter and support the thief.

Until these groups are decisively defeated and their official buildings and safe havens in Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, and elsewhere are destroyed, lasting peace and security will remain unattainable.

Strategic Consequences of the War

From Pakistan’s perspective, the successful defence against a conventionally superior adversary reinforced the credibility of its deterrence posture, demonstrated the professionalism of its armed forces, and challenged prevailing assumptions about the regional military balance.

It also underscored the limitations of technological superiority when not matched by sound strategic planning and accurate assessments of an adversary’s capabilities and resolve.

Diplomatic Consequences of the Conflict

The risk of uncontrolled escalation between two nuclear-armed neighbours prompted major powers and key regional states to intensify their diplomatic engagement, culminating in a ceasefire that prevented a wider war.

In the aftermath, international attention increasingly focused on the need for effective crisis-management mechanisms and sustained dialogue to reduce the danger of future military confrontations in South Asia.

The war also influenced the strategic calculations of regional actors. India accelerated efforts to modernise its armed forces, review operational concepts and strengthen strategic partnerships, while simultaneously seeking to restore its international standing.

Pakistan, for its part, viewed the conflict as a reaffirmation of the importance of maintaining credible conventional and strategic deterrence, strengthening indigenous defence capabilities, and preserving close strategic cooperation with friendly regional partners.

The broader regional environment also underwent significant change. Pakistan’s support for Iran during the subsequent regional crisis further strengthened bilateral trust and expanded opportunities for strategic cooperation.

At the same time, Islamabad became increasingly concerned that, India having failed to achieve its military objectives in the four-day war, it might seek to intensify pressure through indirect means by encouraging instability along Pakistan’s western border. The threat of Sindhoor-2 was in reality designed to intensify proxy war using the Afghan soil.

These concerns gained further prominence as security conditions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan frontier continued to deteriorate, setting the stage for renewed military tensions between Islamabad and Kabul.

                                   To be Concluded 

About the Author

Brigadier (Retd) Asif Haroon Raja, SI (M) is a war veteran. He is Command and Staff Course and War Course qualified, holds an MSc in War Studies, and served as Defence Attaché in Egypt and Sudan, as well as Dean of the Corps of Military Attachés in Cairo.

He is a defence, security, and geopolitical analyst, columnist, featured columnist of IntelDrop magazine Washington, author of five books, former Chairman of Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Patron-in-Chief of Centre for Development Studies Think Tank, Director of Meesakh Research Centre; he regularly appears on media platforms.